April 2026 Investment Update
When the Signals Get Noisy
If you’ve ever tried to follow a weather forecast in the spring, you know how quickly things can change. One day calls for sunshine, the next brings storms, and most of the time, reality lands somewhere in between.
That’s a lot like the market environment we’re in right now.
The last several weeks have been marked by sharp moves in both directions. Strong up days have been followed by equally sharp declines, making it feel like the market is constantly trying to find its footing without ever quite settling in.
And when you zoom out, that’s exactly what the data suggests.
Market Recap
March was defined by broad weakness across major indexes, with volatility persisting throughout the month and culminating in another negative finish.
While there were strong single-day moves in both directions, they ultimately netted out to a month with meaningful declines but no consistent trend.
That continues to reinforce the broader theme we’ve seen in early 2026: a choppy market without sustained direction.
What Drove Markets in March
Rising oil prices
Oil prices moved higher during the month, renewing concerns around inflation and putting pressure on equities.
Mixed economic data
Economic reports painted an uneven picture. While parts of the labor market remain resilient, broader growth signals have softened, raising concerns about a slower growth environment paired with persistent inflation.
Interest rate uncertainty
Markets continue to adjust expectations around Federal Reserve policy. While much of the conversation earlier this year centered on potential rate cuts, more recent data has introduced a new possibility: rates remaining higher for longer, or even additional increases if inflation persists. This shifting outlook has been a key driver of volatility.
Geopolitical tension
Ongoing global instability has contributed to a more cautious, risk-off tone across markets, particularly through its impact on energy prices and investor sentiment.
Don’t Be So Dramatic
As we close out March, the S&P 500 has slipped below its 200-day simple moving average. Historically, that’s a level many investors watch closely, as sustained periods below it have often coincided with more challenging market environments.
But what happens next isn’t always as dramatic as headlines suggest.
On average, when the market enters periods like this, the next 30 days tend to produce relatively muted returns, around +0.41%. In other words, it’s not necessarily about a sharp drop or a quick recovery. It’s often about volatility without clear direction.
We’re also seeing unusually large single-day moves. When the S&P 500 rises 3% or more in a single day, the following 30-day return has historically averaged -0.33%.
Taken together, these signals point to a market that is active but unpredictable.
“Volatility Is Normal, Even in Good Years”
S&P 500 Pattern Shows How Big Drawdowns Often Lead to Strong Year-End Gains https://www.investing.com/analysis/the-stock-market-rally-may-have-been-driven-by-mechanics-not-conviction-200677633
One of the most helpful ways to understand markets like this is to zoom out.
The chart above highlights a powerful reality: intra-year declines are normal, even in strong years.
Since 1950:
- The average intra-year drawdown for the S&P 500 is about -13.6%
- The average annual return is still +11.7%
In other words, markets often experience meaningful pullbacks within the year, even when the final outcome is positive.
This is important context for today’s environment.
Periods of volatility and drawdowns don’t necessarily signal long-term deterioration. More often, they are simply part of how markets function.
Positioning Update
In response to this environment, we’ve made a modest adjustment to portfolios.
We exited our position in biotech and have temporarily allocated those proceeds to short-term U.S. Treasuries. This allows us to reduce exposure to more volatile areas of the market while maintaining flexibility.
Outside of that change, our positioning remains consistent.
We continue to emphasize areas of the market that have historically held up better during uncertain periods, while maintaining exposure to long-term opportunities where appropriate.
While broader markets have experienced recent declines, our positioning has helped cushion that impact, resulting in relatively less downside compared to major indexes.
Overall, portfolios remain tilted defensively.
What Matters Most Right Now
It’s easy to get caught up in day-to-day market moves, especially when they are as pronounced as they’ve been recently.
But environments like this tend to test something more important than prediction. They test discipline.
Markets that lack direction can be frustrating. They can create the feeling that something significant is about to happen, even when the data suggests a more sideways, volatile path.
That’s why our focus remains unchanged.
We follow the indicators.
We make adjustments when the data supports it.
And we avoid reacting to short-term noise.
Final Thoughts
While recent signals suggest a more cautious backdrop, they don’t point to a need for dramatic change. Instead, they reinforce the importance of staying grounded in a process that adapts as conditions evolve.
For now, that means continuing to lean defensive while remaining patient.
As always, if your financial situation, goals, or risk tolerance have changed, please reach out so we can ensure your plan continues to reflect what matters most to you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any references to relative performance are based on internal portfolio observations and are provided for informational purposes only. Indexes such as the S&P 500 are unmanaged, do not incur fees, and cannot be invested in directly. Individual client results may vary based on factors including timing, allocations, and specific investment objectives.
The opinions expressed are those of Strategic Advisory Partners, who reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. There is no guarantee that their assessment of investments will be accurate. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investing involves risk, including the loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that investment objectives will be met.
