Monthly Investment Updates

The stock market spent August setting records. The bond market spent it pushing the government’s borrowing costs to a 19-year high, and many investors now expect the Fed’s next move could be a rate increase. Our September update looks at what those two very different messages mean, and why our positioning has not changed.

When prices have run as far ahead of earnings as they have today, there are only two paths back toward normal. Either prices come down, or earnings rise to meet them. Our August update looks at what July told us about which is more likely.

June looked different from the steady climb of April and May. Markets were choppier, marked by a sharp rotation out of mega-cap technology. The Nasdaq fell roughly 3% for the month while the Dow crossed 52,000 for the first time. That divergence tells an important story. We are watching a set of indicators that historically have signaled elevated risk, and right now, more than one of them is flashing caution. Here is what we are seeing, and what we are doing about it.

U.S. stocks closed May 2026 at or near record highs, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all posting strong gains. But beneath the surface, the rally narrowed, inflation ticked up, and the Fed’s outlook shifted under new leadership. Here’s what drove the month, and how we’re positioning portfolios in response.

April delivered one of the strongest market months we’ve seen in several years, with the S&P 500 up roughly 10% and gains across all major indices.

At first glance, that kind of performance suggests a clear shift higher. But when we look beneath the surface, the environment remains less settled than the headline numbers imply.

We’re continuing to see…

Markets moved lower in March as volatility picked up. Here’s what’s driving the current environment, what the data suggests may come next, and how our positioning has helped reduce downside.

Following the U.S.–Israel strike on Iran and a recent Supreme Court tariff ruling, markets reacted with higher energy prices, sector rotation, and increased volatility. Despite headline pressure, portfolios remain overweight Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Biotech, and Value, positions that have helped manage risk through recent choppiness. February market performance reflected rotation beneath the surface rather than broad market breakdown.

If you live in the Greensboro area, you’ve likely experienced the same frustration we have over the past two weeks: checking the weather forecast, planning accordingly, and then watching as Mother Nature had entirely different plans. One forecast called for a dusting of snow. We got six inches. Another predicted warming trends. Temperatures plummeted instead. The meteorologists weren’t incompetent. They were working with the best models and data available. But weather, like markets, is a complex system influenced by countless variables that can shift without warning. Here’s what struck us about those missed forecasts: The goal of weather forecasting isn’t perfection. It’s about getting it less wrong. And that same principle applies to investment management.

As 2025 came to a close, markets continued to show resilience despite elevated valuations and shifting economic conditions. This update reviews December market performance, discusses the Buffett Indicator, and explains how a disciplined, indicator-driven investment process helps manage risk and avoid emotion-based decisions.