Monthly Investment Updates
What you need to know
February Investment Update 2024
In recent discussions with clients, the topic of “all-time highs” has arisen, often signaling potential market downturns. However, in January, the S&P 500 marked four all-time highs, breaking the previous peak from January 2022. This shift, though relatively brief, holds significance both psychologically and for long-term compounding potential after 512 days below the prior high.
Since 2013, the S&P 500 has reached 351 all-time highs, varying in frequency. This differs from the period from 1930 to 1953, which saw no new highs. Our trend-following analysis suggests that trends tend to persist, but we prepare for moments when “this time is different.” Dive into this further, click the button below to read the full note.
January Monthly Note 2024
In this month’s note, we discuss why predictions can be perilous territory, often leading to emotionally driven investment decisions only to justify them intellectually. Additionally, we share why we feel so strongly about flipping the order to start from the intellectual standpoint, which we believe means having a systematic and repeatable investment process.
December Monthly Note 2023
In this month’s update, we delve into the rollercoaster of investor sentiment mirrored in the S&P 500 movements this year. We also explore historical S&P 500 data, homing in on recovery timelines and offering perspective on the last 24 months.
November Monthly Note 2023
With just two more monthly updates remaining in 2023, we find ourselves reflecting on what has been a year marked by notable shifts in investor sentiment. It is worth noting that even we, as believers in systematic asset management, are not immune to human tendencies such as recency bias, and our perspective may also be shaped by recent events.
October Monthly Note 2023
In the world of investing, markets are in a constant state of flux, and even the most well-thought-out strategies can face tests. September provided a poignant example of this. In the previous month’s note, we discussed our risk handoff strategy and how it led to a shift in allocations from international equities to U.S. equities. While this strategy often proves rewarding as we seek stronger, positively trending markets, it’s essential to recognize that this isn’t always the case. The last thirty days of U.S. equity performance serve as a reminder of the challenges inherent in trend following.
Monthly Note September 2023
In this Monthly Note, we delve into a crucial aspect of achieving market outperformance. We shed light on how our systematic investment approach handles risk management, specifically, our strategy for easing out of weakening asset classes while avoiding a full “risk-off” stance. It’s all about circumventing the wall, not climbing it.
August Monthly Note 2023
In this month’s Investment Update, we tackle the age-old dilemma of chasing shadows versus focusing on substance. As Aesop wisely said, ‘Beware of Grasping at the Shadow.’ We get it; the allure of being right in the markets is tempting, but let’s not lose sight of what truly matters – our systematic, consistent approach to successful investing.
July Monthly Note 2023
We find joy in challenging commonly accepted investing beliefs. One belief we find unhelpful is the obsession with prediction. It’s fascinating how predictions often fall short, and we can’t help but shed light on some glaring examples. The S&P 500 is nearing its all-time high and has shown strong performance in the first half of the year, despite many experts predicting its decline. Blindly following expert advice can lead to pitfalls. Our latest Monthly Note explores 2023 predictions and their actual outcomes so far, along with the intriguing relationship between stock prices and anticipated news. Let’s challenge the status quo and pursue investment strategies that lead to success.
June Monthly Update 2023
In this month’s Investment Update, we delve into how our systematic investment strategies have adapted to the market conditions witnessed thus far in the year. We recognize that trend-following strategies are not flawless, nor are they intended to be. However, based on our experience, they generally position you with a higher probability of capitalizing on what is working, regardless of the prevailing market environment.
